Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Falls to Key Support at $0.41, Long-term Holders Intensify Selling Pressure

The price of Cardano (ADA) is currently retesting the multi-year trend line support that has been in place since 2020, hovering around $0.41. Over the past week, on-chain data shows that long-term holders have sold more than 114.66 million ADA, with the “spent token age” metric rising by 23%, indicating that old coins are accelerating in circulation, which often represents seasoned investors choosing to exit.

This is the first time in over four years that ADA has reached this key trend line. Historically, this support has often become a major reversal point, but this test is occurring against a backdrop of overall market weakness and declining volume. The volume distribution shows that the price is approaching the strong liquidity area around $0.30, indicating that if the current support is lost, the likelihood of dropping to a lower range increases.

Multiple analysts have vastly different views on the prospects of ADA. Trader Sssebi points out that ADA has reached a key multi-year support area, while Jesse Peralta believes that ADA has broken below an important medium-term support. Some bullish analysts like Smith still claim that ADA has “10x growth potential,” suggesting that the current pullback is a cyclical accumulation phase; however, CryptoMindset warns that if ADA breaks below the trend line, it may face a deep decline in the future, potentially returning to the price range of 2018.

In terms of technical indicators, Ali Martinez indicated that the TD sequence shows potential buy signals, suggesting that the downward momentum may weaken. However, overall market sentiment remains divided, with some investors focusing on a possible rebound, while others are concerned about a deeper decline.

In the short term, the range of 0.37-0.41 USD is the current support zone, while 0.46-0.50 USD constitutes the first resistance zone for the recent rebound. If the price firmly holds above the trend line, ADA is expected to retest higher ranges; however, if this trend line is decisively broken, it may trigger a new cycle low, potentially dropping towards the 0.30 USD area.

Against the backdrop of increasing volatility, the market is closely watching whether ADA can maintain its structural support line built over the years. The price performance in the coming days will determine the direction of the mid-term trend.