11.16 AI Daily Report: Risks in the AI industry's capital chain have raised alarms, and the Crypto Assets market continues to be volatile.

1. Headlines

1. OpenAI seeks federal loan guarantees, raising alarms: Is the AI bubble strikingly similar to the subprime mortgage crisis?

OpenAI has publicly requested federal loan guarantees from the U.S. government to support its artificial intelligence training project “Sora 2,” which may cost over $10 billion. This move has raised concerns in the outside world about a potential funding chain breakdown and bubble burst in the AI industry.

OpenAI stated that the Sora 2 project aims to train an AI model capable of generating realistic films, achieving breakthroughs in various fields such as vision and speech. However, the project requires significant funding, and OpenAI hopes to reduce financing costs through federally backed loans.

Analysts point out that OpenAI's actions bear a striking resemblance to the practices before the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. At that time, financial institutions sought federal government loan guarantees to expand by obtaining cheap funding. This approach ultimately led to excessive expansion of financial institutions, accumulation of risks, and the bursting of the bubble.

The AI industry is currently in a period of rapid development, with strong capital demand. However, unlike traditional industries, the business models and profitability of AI companies still have significant uncertainties. If AI companies over-expand and experience a break in their capital chain, it could lead to the bursting of the AI bubble, impacting the technology sector and financial markets.

Experts call for AI companies to carefully assess project prospects and funding needs to prevent excessive expansion; the government should also treat loan guarantees with caution to avoid fueling bubble inflation. Only by jointly controlling risks can AI companies and the government achieve sustainable and healthy development in the AI industry.

2. The first XRP spot ETF in the United States has been listed, raising concerns over supply shock.

The first XRP spot ETF product in the U.S., Canary XRP Trust, was listed on Nasdaq on November 15, with a daily trading volume of $58 million, raising concerns in the market about the impact on XRP supply.

Data shows that before the ETF listing, approximately 1.4 million XRP were withdrawn from cryptocurrency exchanges, valued at about $336 million. This large-scale withdrawal is seen as institutional investors preparing for the ETF.

Analysts point out that the launch of the XRP spot ETF will increase institutional demand for XRP, which could potentially lead to a shortage of XRP supply. Once supply does not meet demand, the price of XRP may surge.

At the same time, some analyses suggest that the supply of XRP is ample, with a circulating amount of about 50 billion coins, which accounts for roughly half of the total supply. Even if the ETF brings some demand, it will not have a significant impact on the price.

The launch of the XRP spot ETF is seen as an important milestone in the mainstreaming of cryptocurrency. In the future, more cryptocurrency ETF products may emerge, which will further increase the participation of institutional investors and have a profound impact on the entire cryptocurrency market.

3. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kurgler resigned due to ethical issues.

Former Federal Reserve Board member Michelle Bowler Bowler( suddenly resigned in August due to ethical concerns, having previously been under investigation by the Fed's internal watchdog.

According to public documents, Kugler was under investigation by the Federal Reserve's internal auditing agency for recent financial reporting issues before resigning in August. Officials from the Federal Reserve's Office of Ethics refused to approve her latest financial disclosure materials and referred the matter to the Office of the Inspector General of the Federal Reserve.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell refused to approve Kugler's exemption from handling financial assets that violated the Federal Reserve's ethics guidelines, which was the direct reason for her resignation.

Analysts have pointed out that this incident has once again raised doubts about the internal management and ethical standards of the Federal Reserve. As the highest institution for formulating monetary policy, the professional ethics of its internal personnel are crucial and directly related to the fairness and authority of the policy.

In addition, the appointment process for the Federal Reserve Board members has also come under scrutiny. Kugler was temporarily appointed as a member during the Trump administration, but did not receive Senate confirmation after the Biden administration took office and could only leave in May of this year.

Experts call for the Federal Reserve to strengthen internal management, increase transparency, and rebuild public trust. At the same time, the appointment process for board members also needs further improvement to avoid political influences and ensure the professionalism and authority of the board team.

) 4. The cryptocurrency market remains sluggish, with differing views among institutions.

The prices of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin continue to be sluggish, and investor sentiment is cautious. Institutions have differing views on the future outlook; some believe it is a medium-term correction, while others warn of the risks of a pullback.

Bitcoin briefly fell below the $16,000 mark on Wednesday, reaching a new low since November 2022. Major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Litecoin also saw declines of around 10%.

The head of Fidelity Digital Assets stated that the decline in the cryptocurrency market is mainly influenced by the macro environment, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the drop in tech stocks, and is considered a medium-term adjustment. As long as the macro environment improves, cryptocurrencies are expected to regain their upward momentum.

However, some institutions hold a cautious view. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the cryptocurrency market is facing not only macro pressures but also inherent supply shocks and weak demand. Without new catalysts, cryptocurrencies may continue to decline.

Analysts point out that cryptocurrencies, as an emerging asset class, have significant price volatility, and investor sentiment is easily influenced. The current market downturn is mainly affected by macroeconomic conditions and confidence factors, but the long-term outlook remains promising.

Investors need to remain patient and rational, closely monitor macroeconomic conditions and regulatory policy changes, while also paying attention to technological innovations in cryptocurrencies and their practical applications, in order to seize long-term investment opportunities.

5. The U.S. Department of Justice cracks down on North Korea's illegal cryptocurrency activities.

The U.S. Department of Justice recently launched a crackdown on North Korea's illegal cryptocurrency activities, convicting five individuals who assisted North Korea in fraudulent employment schemes to fund its regime, and seizing $15 million in cryptocurrency linked to North Korean cybercriminals.

It is understood that North Korea has been using cybercrime activities to obtain funds and evade international sanctions. The newly established Fraud Center Task Force by the U.S. Department of Justice specifically targets such activities.

This operation targets North Korea's illegal acquisition of funds in the United States and other countries through false employment schemes. The five convicted individuals used fake job advertisements to lure American citizens into working in North Korea, but in reality, they were serving the North Korean regime.

Analysts say that this action demonstrates the U.S. government's determination to combat North Korea's illegal financial activities. North Korea has been trying to evade sanctions through means such as cryptocurrency, posing a threat to the international financial order.

At the same time, this also reflects the potential risks of cryptocurrencies in illegal activities such as money laundering and tax evasion. Analysts are calling for countries to strengthen regulations, establish relevant laws, standardize cryptocurrency transactions, and curb their use in illegal activities.

2. Industry News

1. Bitcoin fell below $95,000, market sentiment turned to panic.

Bitcoin dipped below the $95,000 mark in the early trading session today, hitting a daily low of $95,119, as market sentiment turned to panic. Over the past week, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $100,000 level, but has failed to break through effectively, indicating ongoing selling pressure.

Institutional views on future trends are divergent. Some institutions believe this is just a medium-term correction, and Bitcoin is still expected to break its historical high again before the end of the year. However, some analysts warn that Bitcoin may face greater downside risks due to waning investor sentiment and other factors such as ETF fund outflows leading to weak institutional demand.

The negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has also intensified investors' cautious sentiment. Analysts point out that due to the two-month head and shoulders pattern and negative momentum indicators, Bitcoin faces a significant risk of decline. A downward break below $95,000 could lead to the next target of $89,400, while a return to $100,000 could trigger bullish momentum.

2. Ethereum holders are more willing to sell coins than Bitcoin investors.

Analysis from the company Glassnode shows that Ethereum holders are more likely to move and spend their coins compared to Bitcoin holders. This behavior reflects the use of Ethereum in various applications that require transaction fees, while Bitcoin is viewed as a savings asset.

Specifically, Ethereum holders moved about 25% of the supply in the past year, while Bitcoin holders only moved 12%. This indicates that Ethereum holders are more actively participating in the ecosystem, whereas Bitcoin holders are more inclined to hold long-term.

Analysts believe that this difference stems from the different positioning of the two cryptocurrencies. Ethereum is seen as a platform supporting decentralized applications, thus requiring more frequent trading activity. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is regarded as “digital gold,” primarily used for value storage and investment.

This finding also reflects the diversified development of the cryptocurrency market. Investors no longer view all cryptocurrencies as homogeneous assets, but rather distinguish them based on different use cases and characteristics. This differentiation may drive further development of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

3. Cryptocurrency index ETFs are expected to lead the next wave of adoption.

ETFs that hold a diversified cryptocurrency portfolio are expected to fill an important gap in the market in the coming years and will become one of the next waves of adoption. A multi-asset cryptocurrency basket allows users to access the entire industry while mitigating the “specific risk” of investing in a single token.

WisdomTree's Head of Digital Assets, Will Peck, stated: “We refer to cryptocurrency as an asset class, but it is actually a technology. The underlying return drivers of each token are quite different, even though they are generally related, just because the market is at this stage right now.”

Several crypto index ETFs have been launched this year, such as the FTSE Crypto 10 In ETF and FTSE Crypto 10 ex-BTC In ETF launched by 21Shares, which provide investment exposure to a broad portfolio of digital assets by tracking the FTSE Russell cryptocurrency indices.

Analysts believe that the launch of cryptocurrency index ETFs will help attract more institutional funds into the crypto market, enhancing the market's liquidity and efficiency. At the same time, they provide ordinary investors with a simple and diversified investment method, which is beneficial for the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies.

However, cryptocurrency index ETFs still face some challenges in terms of regulation and product design. However, as regulations become clearer and investor education progresses, these challenges are expected to be gradually resolved.

4. Analysts explain why there cannot be 7 million XRP holders

The widely cited figure of seven million XRP wallets does not accurately reflect the number of individual holders. Cryptocurrency analyst CryptoTank estimates that there are fewer than one million true XRP holders.

CryptoTank explains that this number includes exchange wallets, short positions, smart contracts, and more, rather than just individual holders. Due to the large number of institutional participants and professional traders in the XRP ecosystem, the number of individual holders is far lower than the total number of wallets.

He also pointed out that the distribution of XRP holders is highly concentrated, with the top 10% of wallets holding over 99% of the XRP. This means that, despite the large number of wallets, most of the XRP is actually controlled by a small number of large holders.

The analysis of CryptoTank has received support from other analysts. They stated that the true number of cryptocurrency holders has always been a difficult statistic to accurately assess, as many individuals hold multiple wallets, and institutions and exchanges also control a large number of wallets.

This finding again highlights the high concentration in the cryptocurrency market. Although cryptocurrencies are advertised as “decentralized” assets, in fact, most of the circulating supply is controlled by a small number of participants. This could impact the fairness and efficiency of the market.

3. Project News

1. The Sui blockchain ecosystem continues to develop, with new projects emerging one after another.

Sui is a brand new blockchain ecosystem developed by former Meta employees, aimed at providing high-performance, low-cost decentralized applications. Sui uses the Move programming language and has some similarities with ecosystems such as Solana and Aptos.

Latest Updates: The Sui ecosystem is rapidly developing, with new projects continuously emerging. Recently, Sui launched the SuiPlay gaming platform, the Cetus decentralized exchange, and other popular applications. In addition, Sui held a large developer conference, attracting numerous developers to join.

Market Impact: As an emerging ecosystem, Sui has vast development potential. Its high performance and low-cost characteristics are expected to attract more developers and users to join. At the same time, the prosperity of the Sui ecosystem will also promote the popularity of the Move programming language.

Industry feedback: Analysts believe that while the Sui ecosystem has broad prospects, it also faces fierce competition. Compared to other ecosystems, Sui needs more time to accumulate users and applications. However, the technical strength of the Sui team and the activity level of the community are worth noting.

2. The Aptos ecosystem development is facing obstacles, and users have doubts about the roadmap.

Aptos is another emerging blockchain ecosystem based on the Move language, created by former Meta employees. Aptos claims to offer high throughput and low transaction latency.

Latest update: Although Aptos has launched its mainnet and issued tokens, its ecosystem development seems to be facing some obstacles. Users have concerns about the Aptos Foundation's development roadmap, believing there is a lack of clear planning.

Market Impact: The stagnation of the Aptos ecosystem may affect the development momentum of the entire Move ecosystem. If Aptos cannot attract enough developers and applications, it will struggle to compete with other mature ecosystems.

Industry feedback: Some analysts believe that Aptos needs to clarify its development direction as soon as possible and launch attractive applications. Otherwise, Aptos may be overtaken by other Move ecosystems. However, there are also those who hold an optimistic view of the technical strength of the Aptos team.

3. Movement ecology is receiving much attention, looking forward to the launch of the first Move mainnet.

Movement is another important project in the Move ecosystem, aiming to create a high-performance, secure, and scalable blockchain. The Movement team consists of former Diem engineers.

Latest news: As the only project in the Move ecosystem that has not yet issued tokens, Movement has been receiving a lot of attention. It is reported that Movement will soon be launched on the mainnet, becoming the first mainnet based on Move.

Market Impact: The launch of the Movement mainnet will mark a new development stage for the Move ecosystem. If Movement performs well, it will further promote the development of the Move programming language.

Industry Feedback: Industry insiders generally have high hopes for Movement. The technical strength of the Movement team has received widespread recognition. However, some analysts are concerned that Movement may struggle to stand out in an already crowded blockchain market.

4. Economic Dynamics

1. The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in December have cooled.

Economic Background: The US economy experienced a slow recovery in 2025, with GDP growth hovering around 2% and an inflation rate fluctuating around 4%. Although the unemployment rate has declined, the job market remains weak. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish stance, striving to curb rising inflation.

Important events: On November 16, CME FedWatch data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December fell to 44.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 55.6%. This data reflects the market's cooling expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

Market Reaction: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has intensified investors' concerns about the economic outlook. The stock market fell slightly after the news was released, and investors are closely watching the Fed's next move. Some analysts believe that if the Fed maintains its position of not lowering interest rates, it could further hinder the economic recovery.

Expert Opinion: Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius stated: “The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of seeking a balance between inflation and economic growth. If they raise interest rates too aggressively, it could push the economy into recession. But if their actions are not decisive enough, they may fail to control inflation effectively.”

2. European Central Bank raises interest rates by 75 basis points

Economic background: The Eurozone economy fell into recession in 2025, with GDP shrinking for two consecutive quarters. The inflation rate hovered around 8%, well above the European Central Bank's target of 2%. The unemployment rate also rose, indicating a weak job market.

Important events: To curb rising inflation, the European Central Bank decided to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its policy meeting on November 16, the largest single rate hike since the eurozone was established in 1999.

Market Reaction: European stock markets fell after the central bank's decision was announced, as investors worry that interest rate hikes will further drag down the economy. The euro appreciated slightly against the US dollar. Some analysts believe that the European Central Bank's decision helps to defend the euro's international status.

Expert Opinion: David Folkerts-Landau, Chief Eurozone Economist at Deutsche Bank, stated: “The European Central Bank is struggling to catch up with the inflation curve. If inflation expectations rise further, the central bank may need to take more aggressive actions.” He added that while the European Central Bank's interest rate hike decisions may weigh on the economy, they are necessary for controlling inflation.

3. China's exports fell in October

Economic background: China's economy is expected to slow down in 2025, with an annual GDP growth rate of around 5%. Affected by weak global demand, the growth rate of foreign trade imports and exports has significantly slowed. Domestic consumption has shown some recovery, but investment growth is lackluster.

Important Event: On November 16, data released by the General Administration of Customs of China showed that in October 2025, China's exports fell by 4.7% year-on-year, below market expectations. This is the first year-on-year decline in China's exports since February 2020.

Market reaction: The lower-than-expected export data has intensified market concerns about the Chinese economy. The RMB to USD exchange rate has slightly declined. Analysts generally believe that weak external demand will continue to weigh on China's export performance.

Expert Opinion: Liu Yuanchun, Director of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, stated: “The decline in China's exports is mainly influenced by weak global demand, reflecting the severe challenges posed by the external environment. In the future, the government needs to strengthen the expansion of domestic demand and leverage the role of the super-large domestic market.”

Overall, the series of economic data and policy trends released on November 16 reflect a slowdown in the global economic recovery, with central banks in major economies intensifying efforts to curb inflation, which may further hinder economic growth. There are differences among parties on how to seek a balance between inflation and economic growth, and the future trends still need to be closely monitored.

5. Regulation & Policy

1. The Bank of England has released a draft regulation for stablecoins, raising concerns in the industry.

The Bank of England recently released a regulatory draft for stablecoins, aiming to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. The draft proposes a series of stringent regulations, including setting a cap of £20,000 on individual holdings of stablecoins, and imposing strict capital requirements and operational standards on stablecoin issuers.

Background: Stablecoins, as an important component of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, have attracted significant attention from regulatory authorities worldwide. The Bank of England, as the regulator of the UK's financial system, has introduced this draft to regulate and supervise the issuance and circulation of stablecoins.

Policy content: The main content of the draft includes: 1### setting the upper limit for personal holdings of stablecoins at £20,000; 2) requiring stablecoin issuers to hold sufficient reserves and submit to central bank scrutiny; 3) stipulating that stablecoin issuers must establish a sound risk management and governance framework; 4) granting the central bank the power to regulate stablecoin issuers. The draft will officially take effect on January 1, 2024.

Market Reaction: Once the draft was released, it sparked widespread attention and discussion within the industry. Some industry insiders believe that certain provisions in the draft are too strict and may hinder the development of stablecoins in the UK. They are concerned that the £20,000 holding limit will restrict the use of stablecoins among institutional investors. At the same time, some stablecoin issuers have also raised concerns about the capital requirements and operational standards outlined in the draft.

Expert Opinion: Financial technology expert Christopher Woolley stated that the UK central bank's regulatory draft reflects the cautious attitude of regulators towards the risks of stablecoins. He believes that reasonable regulation is beneficial for the long-term healthy development of the stablecoin industry, but it also needs to provide sufficient room for development. Woolley suggested that regulators should maintain close communication with the industry and, under the premise of controllable risks, leave space for stablecoin innovation.

) 2. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has released new guidelines to expedite the approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ### SEC ( recently released new guidelines aimed at accelerating the review process for applications during government shutdowns, a move that will benefit the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs.

Background: Cryptocurrency ETFs have been a hot topic of interest in the industry. Due to the lack of clear regulatory guidance, the SEC has taken a cautious approach to cryptocurrency ETF applications over the past few years, resulting in a slow approval process. The introduction of new guidelines is expected to create favorable conditions for the issuance of cryptocurrency ETFs.

Policy Content: The new guidelines stipulate that applications submitted during a government shutdown will be considered “automatically effective” if the SEC does not respond within 20 days. This regulation will speed up the approval process and reduce unnecessary delays. At the same time, the SEC also emphasized the importance of information disclosure, requiring applicants to provide sufficient information to ensure that investors' interests are protected.

Market Reaction: The new guidelines, once released, sparked a strong response from the market. Cryptocurrency ETF issuers welcomed this, believing it would provide them with a clearer regulatory path and enhance issuance confidence. Investors also showed a keen interest in the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs, looking forward to participating in this emerging asset class through ETFs.

Expert analysis: Cryptocurrency legal expert Jack Tana pointed out that the introduction of the new SEC guidelines marks a shift in regulatory attitude. He stated that the SEC is working to establish a clearer and more efficient regulatory framework to adapt to the rapid development of the cryptocurrency market. Tana believes that the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs will provide investors with more diversified investment channels, which is beneficial for the long-term development of the industry.