招商基金李湛：The A-share market is expected to trend upward in the long term; focus on three main themes including technological innovation

Chief Economist Li Zhan of the China Merchants Fund Research Department recently expressed his market outlook, stating that in the opening year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, 2026 is expected to see steady economic growth with structural optimization. Under the current macroeconomic environment, the A-share market is also supported by key factors such as a robust economic recovery, improved corporate profits, and ample liquidity. Market investment may focus on three main themes: technological innovation, strategic emerging industries, green transformation, and domestic demand recovery.

Regarding macroeconomics, Li Zhan believes that in 2026, economic growth is expected to start steadily, showing a trend of “steady increase and structural optimization.” Benefiting from the implementation of expanded domestic demand strategies, targeted policy support, a coordinated recovery of consumption and effective investment, and continuous empowerment through technological innovation and industrial upgrading, the annual economic growth rate is likely to stay within a reasonable range. Although challenges such as external uncertainties and uneven domestic demand recovery remain, the policy and industrial dividends from the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan will gradually be released, and the endogenous driving force for economic development will continue to strengthen.

It is worth noting that when discussing expectations for future economic development, Li Zhan stated that, at the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the core expectation is to achieve “qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth.” He hopes that through the 14th Five-Year Plan, the economy can shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, address structural contradictions, and focus on deep integration of technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Accelerating the cultivation of strategic emerging industries and future industries, while strengthening social security, will help realize coordinated progress in economic growth, employment improvement, and green transformation, thereby enhancing the resilience and sustainability of economic development.

By 2025, China’s stock market is expected to rebound significantly, with overall valuation levels rising. Since 2026, the A-share market has also shown a trend of oscillating upward. In Li Zhan’s view, current A-share valuations are within a reasonable range and possess certain investment value. The core support comes from steady economic recovery, improved corporate profits, and ample liquidity. In the medium to long term, the A-share market will mainly display a “structural trend with long-term upward movement.” As the 14th Five-Year Plan advances, related targets in technological innovation and industrial upgrading will continue to release value, further optimizing market valuation structures, and long-term capital inflows will enhance market stability.

Meanwhile, Li Zhan stated that the main investment themes for the A-share market in 2026 will revolve around the guidance of the 14th Five-Year Plan and industry trends, focusing on three major areas: first, technological innovation, including AI applications, semiconductors, and commercial aerospace, benefiting from policy support and technological breakthroughs; second, strategic emerging industries and green transformation, covering new energy, energy storage, and environmental protection, aligning with the “dual carbon” goals and industrial upgrading needs; third, domestic demand recovery, including consumption upgrades and high-end manufacturing exports, driven by economic recovery dividends to achieve valuation recovery. These areas will be key investment opportunities throughout the year.

(Source: Economic Information Daily)