Interpretação de Wall Street sobre o sinal de estímulo ao crescimento de Trump: as ações cíclicas podem se tornar a próxima tendência do mercado?

【区块律动】America’s upcoming elections have recently prompted Wall Street to closely analyze a series of economic statements by Trump. From calls to cut interest rates to proposals for credit card rate controls, the market generally interprets these measures as “strong signals to boost growth.” The consensus among investment institutions is: the government will fully stimulate the economy before the elections. What does this mean for cyclical assets? The answer might be more complex than you think.

In simple terms, the policy goals of the Trump administration are twofold—keep the economy active and ensure that the cost of living for ordinary people does not become too high. From this perspective, sectors such as industry, raw materials, and non-essential consumer goods are in the spotlight. Defensive stocks? Those are not the current focus.

How do investment banks view this? Raymond James analysts believe that under strong monetary and fiscal stimulus expectations, it is hard to imagine an economic recovery failing. UBS also pointed out that these policies are largely driven by election considerations; voters’ core concerns remain prices, housing costs, oil prices, and interest rates—things that directly impact their wallets.

Interestingly, the credit card interest rate cap proposed by Trump once frightened bank stocks. However, UBS research team is not too worried, believing that even if implemented, such policies are usually temporary and limited in scope, unlikely to cause long-term shocks to the entire financial sector. They even see the pullback in bank stocks as a buying opportunity. JPMorgan’s stance is similar, expecting that as inflation continues to slow, there will be room for further stimulus in 2026, which is positive for cyclical stocks.

However, there is a risk point worth noting. The S&P 500 index is now approaching the 7000-point mark. Historical experience tells us that before breaking through such important psychological levels, the market often undergoes a correction. BTIG analyzed the past five times when the index hit the thousand-point milestone, and four of those were accompanied by a phase of correction. Therefore, in the short term, policy uncertainties and earnings season may bring volatility.

But overall, most institutions remain optimistic about the performance of cyclical stocks. Will the expectation of growth and improved corporate profits make cyclical stocks the main players in this round of market? There is plenty of room for observation. Market sentiment will indeed fluctuate, but the fundamental support seems stronger.