2025/12/02 $BTC The 4-hour level is in the oversold rebound stage, but the momentum is insufficient, and it is not advisable to chase the price at the moment. A prudent approach is to wait for the price to break through and stabilize above 88,000 USD before looking for a pullback to go long.

The detailed analysis is as follows:

1. Price and Volume Analysis:

Fall and higher trade volumes: The most significant feature of the data is the 193rd K-line (December 1st, 00:00), where the price plummeted from approximately $90,360 to $86,346, accompanied by a massive trading volume (about 897.8 million). This is a typical panic selling signal, confirming a significant top and the start of a downtrend.

Bounce and lower volume: After the sharp fall, the price found a low at $84,677 (the 196th bar), and then rebounded to $86,453 (the 199th bar). However, the trading volume during the rebound was significantly lower than that during the sharp fall, indicating a lower volume rebound, suggesting insufficient buying power and that the bulls' confidence has not fully recovered.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis:

MACD Indicator:

Before the crash, the MACD histogram had been continuously shrinking and turned negative from its peak (bars 181-186), indicating a depletion of upward momentum.

After the sharp decline, the DIF and DEA lines quickly dipped below the zero axis to form a "death cross". Currently (the 199th bar), both remain deeply in the negative region, but the downtrend slope has somewhat slowed. The negative value of the histogram is narrowing, indicating that the downward momentum has temporarily weakened, but overall it is still in the bear-dominated area.

Double EMA Indicator:

The fast line (ema_fast) has crossed below the slow line (ema_slow) and is operating beneath it, forming a bearish arrangement. Currently, the gap between the fast line (87,475) and the slow line (88,590) has narrowed, but there are no signs of a golden cross yet, indicating a significant suppression effect.

RSI and StochRSI indicators:

RSI: Quickly fell from the overbought zone (highest close to 70) to the oversold zone (lowest to 23.9). Currently rebounding to 37.37, it has moved away from extreme oversold, but still below the 50 midpoint, indicating a weak zone.

StochRSI: The K value and D value approached 0 after the sharp fall. Currently (the 199th bar), the K value (26.02) has crossed above the D value (14.23), forming a low-level golden cross, which is a short-term bullish signal supporting the current hourly rebound.

3. Market Structure Analysis:

Key resistance level (upper):

$88,000 $89,000 area: This is the starting area of the crash, as well as a strong resistance zone where the double EMA (fast line/slow line) converges. A rebound to this level will face significant selling pressure.

90,000 psychological barrier: An important support level previously, which becomes strong resistance after being broken.

Key support level (below):

$84,677 (recent low): This is the starting point for the rebound after the plunge, and it is a short-term lifeline that must be defended. If it falls below this level, it will open up further downside potential.

Around $83,800 (earlier low): Provides secondary support.

85,024

Final conclusions and key level summary

Trend status: Consolidation and bottoming after a downtrend. The long-term uptrend has been broken, and the market is seeking a new balance after a sharp fall. Currently in the oversold rebound phase, but the momentum is insufficient and a reversal has not yet formed.

Key resistance level:

1. 88,000 89,000 US dollars (core resistance zone, EMA overlaps with previous structure)

90,000 USD (psychological and structural strong resistance)

Key support level:

1. 84,677 USD (recent rebound starting point, key support)

2. 83,800 USD (secondary support)

Operating suggestions:

For bulls: It is not advisable to chase the price at the moment. A prudent approach is to wait for the price to break through and stabilize above $88,000, then look for opportunities to go long on a pullback. Aggressive traders may consider light positions to go long in the support area of 84,700-85,500, but strict stop-losses must be set (e.g., below 84,600).

For bears: When there is a rebound to the resistance zone of 88,000-89,000 and signs of upward weakness appear (such as long upper shadows, indicator divergence), it is a better position for high selling or shorting. The stop loss can be set above 90,000 USD.

Observers: It is advisable to remain cautious and wait for the market to choose a clear direction. A valid breakout above $90,000 or a fall below $84,600 will guide the next major trend.

Risk Warning: Market volatility is severe, and the above analysis is based on 4-hour data. Please combine it with shorter time frames (such as 1 hour, 15 minutes) to find specific entry points, and be sure to manage risks and set stop-losses. #十二月行情展望