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New signal in cryptocurrencies! What do the recent movements mean?

While the sharp fluctuations in the crypto market over the past two months have frightened investors, experts say a completely different picture is emerging behind the scenes. The Fear Index plummeted to 10, but this panic heralded a period of opportunity.

The volatility in the crypto market over the past two months has increased investor fears. Signals of easing monetary policy from the Fed have reassured the market, and the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December has risen to 86%.

FEAR INDEX SLUMPS TO 10

The past two months, marked by rapid shifts in global market balance, have driven crypto investors to avoid risk. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 10 points, its lowest level of the year, leaving the market trapped in extreme fear.
Those Who Turned Panic Into Opportunity Gained

However, the outlook wasn't as bleak as it seemed. Investors who saw the aggressive declines as an opportunity during this period have reaped strong gains thanks to the positive data flow in recent weeks.

FED RATE CUTTLE PROBABILITY 86 PERCENT

Developments at the Fed, in particular, have significantly reassured the crypto market. The rise in the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 86% in December has been one of the strongest drivers of increased risk appetite in the market.
The reopening of the US government after months, the return of data flow to normal, the easing of concerns about the bubble in tech stocks, and the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations have all dispelled the pessimistic atmosphere that emerged following the sharp liquidations in cryptocurrencies.

Furthermore, the Fed's forecast of three interest rate cuts for 2026 supports investors' long-term risk appetite.

US TREASURY SECRETARY'S STATEMENT REVIVES THE MARKET: WE DO NOT EXPECT A RECESSION

US Treasury Secretary Martha Bessent's statement that a recession is not expected in 2026 has fueled increased optimism in all risk assets, including crypto.

The upcoming implementation of the tax cut law passed in the summer will provide significant cost advantages for corporates.

Tax cuts support strong growth data. As growth increases, fund flows into risky assets will also accelerate.

These expectations are expected to generate new fund inflows in the crypto market in the coming months.
INSTITUTIONS PREPARE FOR REBUYING

Interest in cryptocurrencies has not diminished among either investors or institutions. The regulatory steps taken by the US, particularly in 2025, appear to have increased interest and confidence.

Institutional investors' purchases of Bitcoin have also encouraged individual investors. Moreover, interest wasn't limited to Bitcoin; institutional concentration in major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP increased significantly.

While many untrustworthy altcoins disappeared from the market throughout 2025, more robust projects gained strength. "There is a temporary slowdown in companies building Bitcoin treasuries, but tax cuts will bring new mass purchases."

These purchases are expected to push prices higher again.
CAN BITCOIN BE A SAFE HAVEN?

While the rapid proliferation of blockchain technology and its growing adoption in the traditional financial world are changing the perception of crypto assets, not everyone agrees on the definition of a "safe haven."

The safe haven definition doesn't apply to all cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is the most likely to fulfill this role. However, a global regulatory framework is essential for price stability.

As volatility increases in the coming weeks, I believe it may be more prudent for investors to choose major altcoins.
Destroyed projects and reset coins still pose significant risks, and investors should be very careful: “Accurately assess your risk perception and diversify your portfolio accordingly.

THE MARKET IS FRAGILE, BUT A COLLAPSITY IS NOT EXPECTED

While the outlook remains fragile, there's no need for panic. The positive sentiment generated in 2024–2025, influenced by the Fed's softening tone and the removal of recession expectations in the US economy, may carry over into 2026.

New fund inflows into the crypto market will continue to support Bitcoin's trend outlook. Unless there's a new global crisis or sudden monetary tightening, the moderate outlook for the crypto market will remain.