At the beginning of December, BTC gave the market a warning. That little momentum of recovering losses last week? It dropped to zero in just a few hours.

The trigger for this wave of selling is actually very clear - the Governor of the Bank of Japan suddenly turned hawkish, and the market immediately began betting that interest rate hikes are on the way. U.S. stock futures couldn't hold up and started to fall, and the crypto market naturally suffered as well. The key point is that once the yen truly starts its interest rate hike cycle, the previous strategy of "borrowing low-interest yen to buy dollar assets" will no longer work, and global capital will be reshuffled.

Looking at the technical aspects, the outlook is not optimistic. When November closed, the BTC monthly line failed to break through that key resistance level. Coupled with the fact that US stock market makers were on holiday last week, the market was extremely thin, and a few large sell orders caused the price to collapse in a very ugly manner. When liquidity is insufficient, the market is this fragile.

The next two or three months may be quite difficult. December is the last time window this year for speculating on interest rate cuts. After this month, until February next year, we will basically enter a policy vacuum period. Without any stories about interest rate cuts to tell and no new hotspots to attract funds, what can we rely on to support the market?

There are several data points worth paying attention to this week: Wednesday's ADP employment report #数字货币市场回调 , the worse this data is, the better it is for the market, as it will strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts (. The influence of Friday's PCE inflation data is not as significant now, and there is also the PMI data. However, the most important thing is to see what signals Powell's speech will release. $BTC