#ETH走势分析 Four Key Variables in the Crypto Market in December

This month appears calm on the surface, but in reality, several forces are secretly wrestling with each other.

Let's first talk about the interest rate cut. Last week, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December jumped directly from 45% to 80%, and ETH responded by rising from $2800 to $3100. As a result, rumors of "Powell possibly resigning" emerged in the last couple of days, and the market immediately couldn't hold up. The truth of the matter is not to be discussed for now, but such news is enough to illustrate how sensitive the current sentiment is—any slight movement can stir up waves.

The second variable is the tariff policy. If it is officially implemented this month, it will directly inject liquidity into the market, which would definitely be considered a significant boost for crypto assets.

Looking at the personnel changes in the Federal Reserve again. Before Christmas, there may be a nomination for Hassett to succeed the chair, a person who has consistently supported aggressive interest rate cuts. If he really takes office, the expectation of interest rate cuts will no longer be just an expectation, and the market is likely to react in advance.

Finally, there is the Ethereum hard fork upgrade, which will be executed the day after tomorrow. However, such technical benefits are usually digested in advance, so it is advisable not to chase high prices on the eve of the upgrade. Be careful of the old routine of "good news turning into bad news".

After all, the market hasn't cooled down; it's just that liquidity is waiting for a clear signal. Controlling the position rhythm and closely monitoring interest rate reduction trends is the main logic for this month.