US CPI Outlook: The Impact of Better/Worse Than Expected Data on Monetary Policy

Jin10 data reported on July 15th, according to foreign media analysis, the June CPI report will significantly affect the market’s expectations for the Fed’s next policy move. Currently, the market expects a higher possibility of the Fed lowering interest rates in October. If the data is higher than expected, even if it is far above expectations, the Fed will still wait until October to lower rates, but if the data is moderately below expectations, the Fed is predicted to maintain the interest rate in July and lower it in September. In summary, regarding monetary policy, the June CPI report will clarify who is right, Trump or Powell.