#创作者冲榜 Gold plunges $525 in a single week, silver crashes nearly 16%, a larger decline may be coming

As the Iran conflict continues and energy prices remain elevated, the market is increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures re-emerging, forcing major global central banks to pause their easing process and shift to a longer wait-and-see stance.

Affected by this, gold has continued to suffer significant losses recently. After breaking below the 50-day moving average, a key technical level, bearish sentiment in the market has intensified further. Multiple analysts warn that if the Middle East conflict continues to drag on and energy infrastructure suffers more damage, gold may face further pain in the near term, and the risk of falling back to the lower end of the $4,000 range cannot be ruled out.

Gold plummets $525, breaks through key technical levels, silver drops nearly 16%

As the Middle East war shows no signs of ending, some analysts warn that gold investors may need to prepare for further market declines. The reason is that sustained energy price increases are reigniting inflationary threats, which may force major global central banks to end their original easing path and instead adopt a "wait-and-see" policy stance.

The gold market experienced significant technical breakdown this week. As gold prices fell below the 50-day moving average, which sits slightly below $5,000 per ounce, the market chart structure has clearly deteriorated. Kelvin Wong, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, told Kitco News that Wednesday's breakdown and subsequent continued selling has brought gold markets to a critical turning point.

He pointed out that from a price structure perspective, the 23% rally from the February 2, 2026 low of $4,402 to the March 2 high of $5,420 now appears more like a "corrective rally," or even a typical "dead cat bounce."

This suggests that gold's next phase of movement is more likely to shift toward a sustained bearish-driven decline lasting weeks. From a weekly perspective, gold fell $525.56 this week, a decline of 10.47%, marking the largest single-week drop since 1983. Since the conflict began, gold has declined more than 14%. Recent market data shows gold fell below $4,500 at one point, while the year's high had climbed above $5,600.

By comparison, silver's decline has been even more severe. Silver prices are set to drop 15.67% this week, marking the largest decline since the January spike earlier this year. Spot silver closed at $67.889 per ounce, down 6.74% intraday!

Middle East situation and Strait of Hormuz become key variables for gold's next move

Analysts widely believe that gold's subsequent direction almost entirely depends on how the Middle East situation evolves and whether the Strait of Hormuz can restore free passage, thereby easing global supply chain and energy price pressures.

Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah stated in a recent report that while the market awaits further clarity on the Iran war, he expects gold prices to potentially fluctuate in the $4,600 to $4,700 range in the near term, but also warns that downside risks are mounting. He points out that if energy assets suffer further damage and the war drags on longer, the ultimate result could be gold falling toward the lower end of the $4,000 range per ounce. The reason is that under such a scenario, even the Federal Reserve might be forced to re-hike rates due to persistently elevated energy prices.

However, he also emphasizes that this does not mean gold's long-term trend will permanently weaken. If energy infrastructure damage is limited and oil prices can quickly fall back to pre-war levels, global central banks' buying interest in gold may rekindle, thereby pushing gold prices back to operating above the $5,000 level in the longer term.

Why doesn't gold act like a safe haven asset in wartime?

Despite facing clear headwinds recently, multiple analysts remain optimistic about gold's medium to long-term prospects. Ole Hansen, Chief Commodity Strategist, stated that the core logic behind investors' year-start gold purchases hasn't actually changed, as the global economy still faces unprecedented uncertainty, and geopolitical turmoil and government debt expansion issues remain unresolved.

However, he also points out that the current market needs to first go through a round of sentiment and position adjustment. In other words, investors need to first "cool down from the infatuation," and then may rekindle enthusiasm for gold. For those still bullish on gold, they need to see evidence that the worst phase has passed before they will have more confidence to re-enter. Analysts believe the main reason gold has failed to demonstrate traditional safe-haven strength in a war environment is the re-inflation threat from rising energy prices.

The core of current market trading is no longer just the geopolitical conflict itself, but rather how the conflict transmits through oil prices to inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy paths.

Central banks in full pause mode, but markets have already rapidly withdrawn rate cut bets!

Over the past week, all major global central banks maintained interest rates unchanged and collectively entered a relatively neutral "wait-and-see mode," to observe how the war will ultimately impact inflation expectations. Haworth points out that the next four to six weeks will be an important observation window for central banks, especially as companies begin adjusting budget expectations before summer, policymakers will see more clearly whether the energy shock will substantially impact business decisions and price behavior.

However, the market clearly lacks that much patience. Investors have already begun rapidly withdrawing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Thu Lan Nguyen, Head of Foreign Exchange and Commodities Research at Commerzbank, stated that in the United States, not even a single full rate cut by year-end has been adequately priced in. At the end of February, the market widely expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.5 times. She points out that following recent Fed meetings, rate cut expectations were further weakened, mainly because Federal Reserve Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized inflation risks and clearly stated that if future signs show inflation cannot return to target levels in the medium term, further monetary easing will not be considered.

Against this backdrop, as long as energy prices continue to rise and elevate long-term inflation expectations, gold prices are likely to remain under downward pressure.

Gold's long-term bull market may not be over, but the short term needs "consolidation confirmation"

Although Fed hawkishness typically depresses gold by pushing up bond yields and the dollar, some analysts believe gold's long-term opportunity hasn't disappeared. Senior Market Analyst Michael Brown stated that if central banks become overly focused on inflation and actually continue tightening policies in a recession environment, this itself could constitute a serious policy error. He points out that monetary policy has limited effectiveness against supply-driven inflation; all central banks can typically do is slow economic growth by dampening demand.

Therefore, given that the duration of the Iran conflict and its economic impact remain highly uncertain, central banks adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy is actually the most logical approach. But if major central banks ultimately do commit the policy error of "tightening during recession," gold may still perform well on a longer-term basis, as investors will then seek tools to hedge against economic downturn risks.

Brown stated that he does not believe the gold bull market has ended, but at the current stage, the market needs to first experience a sufficient consolidation, and then have better reason to strengthen confidence in "buying the dip."