Williams menetapkan ekspektasi pertumbuhan, Federal Reserve kemungkinan akan memperlambat secara signifikan laju penurunan suku bunga pada tahun 2026

The latest expectations from Federal Reserve New York President Williams once again stir market nerves. He stated that the U.S. economic growth rate in 2026 could be between 2.5% and 2.75%. Behind this moderate growth outlook lies a reassessment of the monetary policy space. Coupled with the Fed’s recent rate cut and the cautious attitude of officials, this signal points to a clear direction: the rate cut channel in 2026 may not be as wide as the market imagines.

Policy implications behind growth expectations

What does 2.5%-2.75% mean

Williams’ growth expectation is at a moderate to slightly below the long-term potential growth rate of the U.S. economy. This figure seems moderate, but the key lies in its delicate balance with the current economic conditions. According to the latest news, the Fed just completed a rate cut on January 12, bringing the interest rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range, with a total cut of 75 basis points in 2025. However, Williams subsequently stated “there is no urgency for further rate cuts,” which is not polite talk, but a calm assessment of growth and inflation prospects.

Rate cut space severely compressed

The Fed’s dot plot has already released a clear signal: only one rate cut is planned in 2026. This sharply contrasts with the market’s widespread expectation of “frequent rate cuts” in mid-2024. The reason for the compressed rate cut space is not complicated: inflation is still not fully tamed, while the employment situation is worsening. According to relevant information, the latest data shows 910,000 jobs evaporated. This “see-saw” dilemma between employment and inflation is the fundamental reason why officials like Williams are adopting a cautious stance.

Key timing points this week will determine market expectations

Today’s two “trials”

Williams’ speech and December CPI data will both be released today (January 13). Williams’ speech is scheduled for 07:00 Beijing time, while the December CPI data will be announced at 21:30 in the evening. The time difference between these two events is less than 15 hours, leaving significant room for market sentiment fluctuations.

If CPI data shows stubborn inflation, officials like Williams and other FOMC members may further reinforce expectations of a “pause in rate cuts.” According to relevant information, next week Fed officials will speak intensively, including Bostic, Barkin, Moussad, and other voting members, who may unify their tone to suppress rate cut expectations.

Liquidity expectations in the crypto market are reshaping

For crypto assets, this shift is crucial. The Fed’s policy shift from “active rate cuts” to “cautious wait-and-see” means the global liquidity easing pace will be slower than expected. This directly impacts the allocation logic of risk assets. However, from another perspective, the increased transparency and independence of Fed policies (according to relevant information, Powell has hired a law firm to counter political pressure) actually provide a more predictable policy environment for the market.

Summary

Williams’ growth expectation of 2.5%-2.75% essentially means: the U.S. economy is growing enough to support the current policy stance, but not enough to support aggressive easing. Considering the stubborn inflation and worsening employment reality, the Fed in 2026 is more likely to “hold steady” rather than “frequently intervene.” Next week’s CPI data and officials’ speeches will be key windows for the market to reprice liquidity expectations. For crypto assets, this means shifting from “waiting for easing” to “adapting to balance.”