#比特币六连涨 Bitcoin Returns to $90,000 Level, But Market Confidence Remains Insufficient

Bitcoin price has reclaimed the $90,000 level, yet the foundation of this rally remains fragile. Despite the price recovery, traders overall maintain a defensive posture, and derivative markets have yet to show sustained optimistic sentiment.

As Bitcoin rebounds this week, the cryptocurrency derivatives market has shown almost no clear signals capable of supporting a sustained uptrend. Even with Bitcoin spot ETFs attracting renewed capital inflows last week, the overall market structure has not improved in tandem.

The current price recovery appears more like a temporary reprieve rather than the beginning of a new uptrend cycle. In key areas reflecting market sentiment—Bitcoin perpetual and dated futures—most trading remains concentrated in near-term contracts. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, long viewed as an important barometer of institutional investor participation, currently shows weak demand for longer-dated futures.

Vetle Lunde, research head at K33 Research, pointed out in a report released Tuesday that despite slight signs of improved market sentiment, the overall tone remains cautious, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach amid the recent gains. The report shows that spot trading volume, volatility, and derivatives leverage levels are hovering near lows from before December last year, with 86% of open interest concentrated in the nearest-expiration contracts.

Meanwhile, the funding rate for perpetual futures remains at relatively low levels, reflecting limited long positions in the market and unchanged risk appetite.

However, the selling pressure that persisted for weeks at the end of 2025 reversed in the initial trading days of this year, pushing Bitcoin prices higher. On January 5, Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest single-day net inflow since October 7 last year, and ranked among the top ten largest single-day capital inflows since January 1, 2025.

Should Bitcoin strengthen further, it could reactivate trading activity in CME futures. As the spread between spot and futures prices widens, basis trading—a strategy of profiting from the price difference between the two—is expected to become attractive again.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's underperformance relative to gold and equity markets has sparked market discussions about the long-term value of crypto assets. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, pointed out in a report released Monday that Bitcoin volatility has continued to decline, especially when compared to gold and risk assets, which may suggest that the most explosive phase of crypto assets has gradually passed.