Harga tembaga terus meningkat menembus pasar saham Taiwan, dengan hampir 10.000 lot pembelian tembaga pertama terkumpul. Bagaimana langkah selanjutnya yang harus diambil oleh para investor?

London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices broke through the historical high of $11,538 per metric ton, driving Taiwan stock copper concept stocks to surge collectively. Among them, the flagship stock First Copper (2009) surged to the daily limit price of NT$47.75 during trading, creating a new high in the past 8 months, with nearly 10,000 buy orders hovering at the close. Does this international copper market rally transmitted to Taiwan signal the start of a new round of uptrend, or the final sprint before market sentiment overheats?

Multiple Factors Driving Up International Copper Prices Supply and Demand Imbalance as Key Driver

The current rise in copper prices is not merely fund speculation, but is supported by actual market fundamentals. First, global major copper mine production faces pressure. Major copper-producing countries such as Chile and Indonesia have encountered production disruptions, exacerbating the tight supply situation of raw ore.

Second, expectations at the trade level are also pushing up prices. Market rumors suggest the United States may implement tariff policies on imported primary copper products, which has triggered a rush shipment among global traders. Copper inventories in Asia are accelerating outflow, flowing to the United States and other regions, further worsening the supply shortage in the spot market.

Third, green energy transition injects sustained momentum into the copper market. The electric vehicle industry, solar capacity expansion, power grid infrastructure upgrades, and other sectors all have enormous demand for copper, and these rigid demand needs provide long-term support for copper prices. An analyst at Ruiyuan Investment Advisory, Wei Mingyu, points out that this strong international copper price performance has solid supply and demand fundamentals as backing, providing sufficient momentum for the upward push of First Copper and related individual stocks.

Taiwan Stock Funds Follow Suit Copper Concept Group Heats Up Collectively

The hot international market quickly attracted the attention of Taiwan stock funds. First Copper became the leader in this round of market action. After volume-driven launch on Monday, following one day of volume consolidation, it directly broke through the daily limit with strong momentum today.

From a technical perspective, First Copper has exhibited characteristics of a conversion from a low base period to upward, with ideal price-volume coordination. With the strong support of international copper prices, Wei Mingyu stated that the next target for this stock will be to challenge the 48.75 yuan level in the previous heavily trapped area, and if it can effectively break through this barrier, it is expected to open up greater upside space.

The performance of copper-related groups is equally hot. Huarong (1608) rose more than 7% during trading, Daya (1609) also rose more than 3%, the entire group’s buying sentiment was fully ignited, showing the market’s positive outlook on the copper industry chain.

Technical Indicators Sound Alarm Short-term Prevention Against Overheating Correction

However, behind the euphoria of the bulls, cautious voices are beginning to emerge. From a technical analysis perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the LME copper daily chart has approached the overbought zone, meaning the speed of the short-term rally has been quite rapid, with the possibility of technical pullback adjustments.

For investors planning to enter the market, analysts have provided several suggestions. First, avoid blindly chasing prices near the daily limit price, as market euphoria is often accompanied by high risk. Second, closely monitor whether the individual stock’s price-volume structure remains stable, that is, whether the upward push continues to gain volume support, while paying attention to whether international copper prices show signs of fluctuation at high levels. Third, around December 20 may become an important time node for observing market direction.

Medium and Long-term Outlook Bull Trend Difficult to Change But Fluctuations Inevitable

In comprehensive assessment, with global inventory at low levels, rigid demand from the green energy industry, and geopolitical stockpiling as three major supporting factors, the medium and long-term bull trend for copper prices is difficult to shake. However, due to the recent rapid rally, increased short-term volatility has become an inevitable phenomenon.

For Taiwan stock investors, the subsequent performance of First Copper will become an important reference for market risk assessment. The key to whether it can lead the group to continue moving upward lies in whether international copper prices can stand firm at high levels, and whether Taiwan-related enterprises’ orders and profits can simultaneously reflect the benefits of rising commodity prices. Investors, while maintaining a positive long-term outlook, should make prudent judgments in the next step and strictly adhere to risk management principles, in order to truly profit from this round of copper price movement.