#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Non-farm data clearly impressive! Trump, however, keeps jumping back and forth in the US-Iran "peace talks"; what will be the future of Bitcoin and Ethereum? Market analysis and trading suggestions!

　　Beijing time Friday 20:30, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March non-farm employment report, which showed a significant increase in employment, indicating a notable improvement in the labor market, due to the end of strikes in the healthcare industry and rising temperatures.
However, the overall employment environment remains nearly stagnant, and considering that there are no clear signs of ending the war with Iran, the downside risk to the labor market is continuously increasing.
For the Federal Reserve, considering that inflationary pressures may gradually emerge, waiting and watching may continue to be the main tone of recent policy stance.
The U.S. March seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 178k, far exceeding the market expectation of 60k, reaching the highest level since December 2024, significantly improving from the previous month's "negative growth" of 92k, which was revised from -92,000 to -133k.
Meanwhile, the U.S. March unemployment rate slightly fell to 4.3%, with market expectations remaining steady at 4.4%. The U.S. March average hourly wages grew at an annual rate of 3.5% and a monthly rate of 0.2%, both below the expected 3.7% and 0.3%, respectively, with previous values revised from 3.8% and 0.4%.
Following the non-farm data release, the dollar index surged sharply in the short term, reaching a high of 100.1. Major non-U.S. currencies declined across the board, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD falling nearly 30 points in the short term. Market pricing shows that expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2026 have decreased.
In cryptocurrencies, after the non-farm data was released, there was no significant volatility. This week, affected by Trump's rhetoric, the US-Iran war has been fluctuating repeatedly. Bitcoin and Ethereum also oscillated within a range.
Relatively speaking, focusing on one direction might be better, because trying to profit from both long and short positions simultaneously is not impossible, but depends on personal preference.
The short-term market shows some correlation with US stocks. Technically:
Bitcoin and Ethereum are still operating within a downtrend channel, which is undeniable. In the larger trend, combined with smaller trends, after bottoming out on February 6 at the beginning of the year, they have been correcting in a oscillating manner. The current correction is not enough to reverse the major trend. After the last big decline, the price experienced a broad oscillation for about three months; currently, the oscillation has only lasted two months.
Once we understand that we are still in a consolidation cycle, short-term and medium-term trading should be planned according to our own funds, rather than imagining a one-sided trend is coming!
After understanding the major trend, we can then discuss the short-term direction and trend changes in detail!
In the short term, just analyze within this two-month oscillation range. There is no need to look at larger ranges and trends, as they are only suitable for institutions. For example: BlackRock, Grayscale, and other such institutions. During the oscillation, Bitcoin and Ethereum are both operating within the Fibonacci retracement zone of 0.618-0.5, which is expected to be broken only during the weekend or early Monday morning. During the weekend, prices will continue to fluctuate to adjust indicators. Focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum will eventually follow Bitcoin's trend!
Currently, Bitcoin is quoted at $67,000, within the Fibonacci zone of 0.618-0.5. Short-term support levels are at: $66,200-$66,000;
Short-term resistance is at: $68,000. Over the past two months, this range has caused many to believe a breakdown could happen at any time, but repeated non-breakouts have led many short-term traders to unnecessary losses. Trading with small stop-losses at the bottom to go long is the lowest-cost strategy.
As for Ethereum, there are some differences, partly due to the recent rise in the ETH/BTC exchange rate. Ethereum tends to make "insertion" moves, and its current candlestick pattern is less strong than Bitcoin's. The overall trading approach is synchronized. Currently, Ethereum is also operating within the Fibonacci zone of 0.618-0.5, which is a very narrow range. Short-term support is at: 2015-1900; short-term resistance is at: 2080-2100.