tonight's US CPI data is not a definitive conclusion, but rather an emotional trigger.

Every time the data is released, the market will surge wildly within 20 to 30 minutes — this is not because the numbers themselves are sacred, but because they will directly trigger a complete pricing chain. From CPI → inflation expectations → Federal Reserve policy expectations → capital flows and market sentiment, step by step. Once this chain is triggered, quantitative teams, algorithmic funds, and sentiment funds will all rush in simultaneously.

The current market consensus expectation is: the US November unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate is 2.7%.

What if the data exceeds 2.7%? That would mean inflation hasn't come down, and might even be a bit "sticky." In this case, the expectation of rate cuts will be pushed back — the dollar will strengthen, risk assets will come under pressure, and the crypto market is likely to be hammered in the short term.

Conversely, if the data does not exceed 2.7%? Inflation continues to approach the 2% target, making the rate cut logic more solid. The dollar will be under pressure, risk appetite will recover, and the crypto market will have a chance for emotional recovery.

Key point: the market is now in a "tension state," and there will definitely be volatility tonight, but volatility does not necessarily mean a trend, which is very important.

For short-term traders, this moment tests not your judgment but your position discipline. If you already have positions, lower your leverage first. If you haven't opened a position yet, wait for the data to come out before acting. Especially in the first few minutes after the data is released, do not chase orders or gamble on the first candlestick — this is the easiest time to get caught.

The real focus tonight, to put it simply, is observing how the market re-prices the "rate cut expectation" main line. Those who can control their positions will be able to maintain the initiative amid this volatility. As long as you hold your chips, you are still at the table.