Many friends who have been following my views for a long time are clear that my method of analyzing the market never hinges on the涨跌数字 of candlesticks themselves. The truly important thing is actually very simple——筹码流向. Where the money flows, where the心念 goes, the market's脉搏 naturally becomes apparent.

The market trend over the past two months, to be honest, is a bit令人唏嘘. It's not the跌幅本身 that is outrageous, but the变化 in筹码分布 that has already破坏了 the previous认知框架. This is fundamentally a "大洗牌"级别的转变.

I have整理了 the timeline very clearly: October 11th is the分水岭 of this wave调整. Today marks almost exactly two months, and I specifically compared the URPD数据 from that day and December 20th. When I did, I immediately understood——the market has now换了个模样.

The URPD指标 might be unfamiliar to some新朋友, simply put, it shows how much筹码 is积压在各个成本区间, who is出货, who is承接, all in one glance.

The直观感受 from comparing the two sets of data is: those高价位囤积的红色筹码块 have明显在缩水. What does this mean? It indicates that a batch of people who曾经在高位持筹 are now撑不住了——some want to落袋为安, some are被迫割肉止损. These高位筹码 used to be the"压舱石" of the entire market, but now they are成批消失, reflecting how many参与者的信心瓦解. Just thinking about it, it’s self-evident.

Conversely, while高位筹码往下流, the中段价格区域却出现了异常密集的筹码堆堆. Here, I need to说明一点——部分堆积其实来自头部交易所的钱包整理动作,不能完全当成是市场自发的买卖换手. This细节很关键,不要搞混了.