Recent reports from UBS indicate that the effects of the new 18C regulation introduced by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last year are beginning to manifest. Their executives anticipate that next year, 150 to 200 companies may choose to list in Hong Kong, with total fundraising reaching up to 300 billion HKD—if this number is achieved, Hong Kong is likely to reestablish itself as the world's largest IPO market.

Calculations suggest that on average, 3 to 4 new companies ring the bell each week. This pace has been relatively rare in the Hong Kong market in recent years.

Which companies will come?

From an industry distribution perspective, consumer goods, high technology, and artificial intelligence-related companies will be the main force. This aligns well with the positioning of the 18C regulation—it specifically opens the green light for tech companies that are not yet profitable, focusing on supporting four sectors: information technology, advanced manufacturing, new energy, and biotechnology.

Previously, profitability was a hard threshold for these types of companies to go public. Now, with the regulatory adjustments, as long as they meet technological innovation standards and are still in the burn-money stage, they can also enter the market. This is a tangible benefit for many growth-stage tech companies.

Why now?

Several factors have converged. The Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle, with liquidity relatively loose; although the recovery of the mainland consumer market is not rapid, the trend is upward; and Hong Kong’s local listing system has just been adjusted to be more friendly to tech companies.

There’s also an interesting data point: UBS mentioned that the valuation of listed companies in Greater China is 30%-40% cheaper than in the US stock market. This valuation gap might be one of the factors some companies consider when choosing a listing location.

What does this mean for investors?

If this wave of listings truly arrives, the market will see a new batch of tech-related targets. However, from planning to implementation, IPOs involve many uncertainties—market conditions, regulatory approvals, and the companies’ own preparations can all influence the final outcome.

Moreover, the quality of newly listed companies will vary. Some may indeed have technological barriers and growth potential, while others might just be riding a timing window. Investors need to filter and judge for themselves.

Regulatory changes often bring phased opportunities, but opportunities and risks always come together. Staying informed is correct, but maintaining clarity is also necessary.

Which fields of tech companies do you think are most likely to become market focal points next year? Feel free to share your views.